Sorry, everyone. It's been hard to keep up with this blog given all my other dividend dude duties.
For example, I just started Twittering ... you can get my updates here.
And you already know about my weekly articles over at Money & Markets.
But I promise to pay a little more attention to this outlet going forward ...
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Markets look shaky; Dividends in decline ...
As I wrote in today's Money & Markets column, I strongly suggest more aggressive investors take some profits in their speculative positions that have run up strongly.
Reason: We are at critical technical levels on the major indexes AND I see no major fundamental reasons for the market to go higher in the short-term.
Meanwhile, dividends are getting harder to find. According to Standard & Poor's, the second quarter of 2009 was the worst for dividends in nearly 50 years.
That doesn't mean there aren't still solid income stocks out there, of course. My Dividend Superstars subscribers have seen a number of increases despite the meltdown. However, you need to be much more selective than you were a few years ago.
Reason: We are at critical technical levels on the major indexes AND I see no major fundamental reasons for the market to go higher in the short-term.
Meanwhile, dividends are getting harder to find. According to Standard & Poor's, the second quarter of 2009 was the worst for dividends in nearly 50 years.
That doesn't mean there aren't still solid income stocks out there, of course. My Dividend Superstars subscribers have seen a number of increases despite the meltdown. However, you need to be much more selective than you were a few years ago.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Mortagage applications post big drop ...
Newsflash: People don't want to borrow money when rates surge!
Seriously, dude.
According the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications for the week ended June 26 dropped 18.9% ... the lowest reading since November 2008.
Interesting, isn't it? Right back to some of our darkest credit hours.
In my opinion, this is very bad news for the housing recovery. And it's one more reason for people to start begging Washington to manipluate rates yet again. The magic number -- according to all our favorite real estate cheerleaders -- is a 30-year fixed that begins with a "4."
No, not 40% ... that will probably come later once everyone realizes just how much money we've created out of thin air. =^)
Meanwhile, all indicators are pointing to worse-than-expected job losses when the official number is released this Thursday.
So I ask you, dear reader, how exactly is housing supposed to be bottoming right now? How are all those $400K and $500K houses going to move off the market?
Seriously, dude.
According the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications for the week ended June 26 dropped 18.9% ... the lowest reading since November 2008.
Interesting, isn't it? Right back to some of our darkest credit hours.
In my opinion, this is very bad news for the housing recovery. And it's one more reason for people to start begging Washington to manipluate rates yet again. The magic number -- according to all our favorite real estate cheerleaders -- is a 30-year fixed that begins with a "4."
No, not 40% ... that will probably come later once everyone realizes just how much money we've created out of thin air. =^)
Meanwhile, all indicators are pointing to worse-than-expected job losses when the official number is released this Thursday.
So I ask you, dear reader, how exactly is housing supposed to be bottoming right now? How are all those $400K and $500K houses going to move off the market?
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
The FICO article I mentioned a couple days ago ...
Just wanted to give you a link to the FICO article I mentioned in the story below. This just went up on Money & Markets this morning, and I think it's worth reading. Of course, I'm biased. =^)
Click here for the story!
Click here for the story!
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Credit Card Companies Slashing Available Credit
This story from BusinessWeek (via Yahoo! Finance) shows just how unfair consumers are getting treated nowadays.
Basically, card companies are slashing people's limits, often without good reason. And because of the way FICO scores are calculated, the end result can be a lowered score through no fault of your own.
It's ridiculous ... in fact, the entire system is ridiculous. It simply proves just how far the pendulum swings from one side to the other.
I'm planning on writing extensively on this topic for my next Money & Markets column so stay tuned!
Basically, card companies are slashing people's limits, often without good reason. And because of the way FICO scores are calculated, the end result can be a lowered score through no fault of your own.
It's ridiculous ... in fact, the entire system is ridiculous. It simply proves just how far the pendulum swings from one side to the other.
I'm planning on writing extensively on this topic for my next Money & Markets column so stay tuned!
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Foreigners Want Less U.S. Bonds ...
More news in the "why Treasury yields will rise" department. According to Washington, net purchases of stocks, notes and bonds purchased by foreigners dropped to $11.2 billion in April from $55.4 billion in March.
Dude, that's an 80% drop!
Do you think foreigners might be worried about the dollar ... the pathetic interest rates they're receiving ... and a host of other systemic problems we have?
I sure do ...
Dude, that's an 80% drop!
Do you think foreigners might be worried about the dollar ... the pathetic interest rates they're receiving ... and a host of other systemic problems we have?
I sure do ...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Today's Money & Markets column ...
I decided to take that little nugget I posted below and expand on it quite considerably for my newest column in Money & Markets.
And the activity over on my Money & Markets blog has been absolutely tremendous. I encourage you to stop over there and read the column/share your thoughts. The insights and feedback have been tremendously valuable, and I'm having a load of fun responding to everyone ...
Nilus
And the activity over on my Money & Markets blog has been absolutely tremendous. I encourage you to stop over there and read the column/share your thoughts. The insights and feedback have been tremendously valuable, and I'm having a load of fun responding to everyone ...
Nilus
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Why Housing Has Much More Downside
I don't care what your local realtor might have to say ... real estate remains largely overpriced just about anywhere I look -- whether it's South Florida, California, or more "stable" areas like Pennsylvania, Delaware and New York.
Look, the basic numbers just don't make sense ...
According to a 2005 Census economic survey:
Only 5% of individuals had six figure incomes and the top 10% got paid more than $75,000.
On a household level, the top 5% (75% had two earners) had incomes of $166,200 or more .
The top 1.5% of households raked in more than $250,000.
Meanwhile, nearly everywhere I look any house that a middle-class person would consider buying (meaning reasonably attractive, in a decent school district, in good condition, etc.) is easily pushing $400,000 or $500,000.
How does that add up? If the fifth percentile household makes about $160,000 that means a $400,000 house is marginally "affordable" in my book. Unlike most people, I'm factoring in taxes, insurance, car payments (two BMWs, I'm sure), and all the other everyday necessities that an affluent household simply must have. And I'm -- gasp! -- actually assuming that they might want to save some money for retirement and their kids' college funds.
So call me crazy, but I simply do not see how -- given falling prices, recently rising rates, and ultratight credit conditions -- that housing at the higher end has any chance in hell of rebounding or even stabilizing anytime soon!
Full disclosure: I have been renting throughout the madness ... in Manhattan, then South Florida, and now in the Brandywine Valley of DE/PA.
Look, the basic numbers just don't make sense ...
According to a 2005 Census economic survey:
Only 5% of individuals had six figure incomes and the top 10% got paid more than $75,000.
On a household level, the top 5% (75% had two earners) had incomes of $166,200 or more .
The top 1.5% of households raked in more than $250,000.
Meanwhile, nearly everywhere I look any house that a middle-class person would consider buying (meaning reasonably attractive, in a decent school district, in good condition, etc.) is easily pushing $400,000 or $500,000.
How does that add up? If the fifth percentile household makes about $160,000 that means a $400,000 house is marginally "affordable" in my book. Unlike most people, I'm factoring in taxes, insurance, car payments (two BMWs, I'm sure), and all the other everyday necessities that an affluent household simply must have. And I'm -- gasp! -- actually assuming that they might want to save some money for retirement and their kids' college funds.
So call me crazy, but I simply do not see how -- given falling prices, recently rising rates, and ultratight credit conditions -- that housing at the higher end has any chance in hell of rebounding or even stabilizing anytime soon!
Full disclosure: I have been renting throughout the madness ... in Manhattan, then South Florida, and now in the Brandywine Valley of DE/PA.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Why I Said Sell Southern Copper, Texas Instruments, and More ...
As I look at my trading screens today, I see that a couple of recent Dividend Superstars recommendations are rising yet again -- including Texas Instruments (TXN) and Southern Copper (PCU).
Now, my subscribers should already be out of those positions with very nice gains. And while I hate to see any money left on the table, in this market I still think selling into strength makes sense on some of the higher-beta stocks and industries.
For all the reasons why, see my latest story over at Money & Markets.
Now, my subscribers should already be out of those positions with very nice gains. And while I hate to see any money left on the table, in this market I still think selling into strength makes sense on some of the higher-beta stocks and industries.
For all the reasons why, see my latest story over at Money & Markets.
Friday, June 5, 2009
A Follow-Up on the Treasury Bond Post ...
I also wanted to note that Professor Jeremy Siegel (who I tend to agree with quite often) very clearly spelled out the situation regarding Treasuries in this Yahoo Finance column.
Personally, I feel much better about TIPS, despite the supposed long-shot default risk. Again, that's because I believe inflation is both baked into our current system and especially because of our country's current fiscal policies.
It is also interesting to note the idea of a government defaulting on its debt held by foreigners while honoring obligations to its citizens. I don't believe the U.S. would pursue such a self-destructive strategy, but in many ways we are already pursuing a similar -- albeit less overt -- form of this by continuing to flood the market with bonds that must be begrudgingly bought by countries such as China who already hold massive amounts of our debt in their reserves.
It's certainly an uncomfortable Catch-22 ... and how it will play out remains to be seen.
Personally, I feel much better about TIPS, despite the supposed long-shot default risk. Again, that's because I believe inflation is both baked into our current system and especially because of our country's current fiscal policies.
It is also interesting to note the idea of a government defaulting on its debt held by foreigners while honoring obligations to its citizens. I don't believe the U.S. would pursue such a self-destructive strategy, but in many ways we are already pursuing a similar -- albeit less overt -- form of this by continuing to flood the market with bonds that must be begrudgingly bought by countries such as China who already hold massive amounts of our debt in their reserves.
It's certainly an uncomfortable Catch-22 ... and how it will play out remains to be seen.
Treasury Bonds Are Still a Bad Bet ...
Before I go any further, I want to clarify something ... when I say Treasury bonds, I'm talking about longer-term notes and bonds not the shorter-term notes and bills.
Okay, with that out of the way, I have been fairly vocal about the risk associated with longer-dated Treasuries. And despite a respectable sell-off, I continue to believe that it does not make sense to buy massive amounts of these investments for your income portfolio right now.
No, I am not worried about the U.S. government losing its AAA rating (though that is a small possibility at some point in the future). Instead, I simply believe that the Fed will end up behind the curve regarding inflation and will ultimately have to jack up rates significantly.
When will it happen? Who knows. But if you think long-term yields aren't going to ever get back to 6% and ultimately to 10% or higher, I think you're failing to understand just how much money is being pumped into our economy right now ... and just how "Fed up" foreign investors are becoming with the massive amounts of debt our government is issuing.
If you want to hold "safe" government-backed bonds, I strongly urge you to consider Treaasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or I-bonds instead of plain vanilla Treasuries right now ...
Okay, with that out of the way, I have been fairly vocal about the risk associated with longer-dated Treasuries. And despite a respectable sell-off, I continue to believe that it does not make sense to buy massive amounts of these investments for your income portfolio right now.
No, I am not worried about the U.S. government losing its AAA rating (though that is a small possibility at some point in the future). Instead, I simply believe that the Fed will end up behind the curve regarding inflation and will ultimately have to jack up rates significantly.
When will it happen? Who knows. But if you think long-term yields aren't going to ever get back to 6% and ultimately to 10% or higher, I think you're failing to understand just how much money is being pumped into our economy right now ... and just how "Fed up" foreign investors are becoming with the massive amounts of debt our government is issuing.
If you want to hold "safe" government-backed bonds, I strongly urge you to consider Treaasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or I-bonds instead of plain vanilla Treasuries right now ...
Why Are Investors Cheering So Loudly?
It's interesting to watch the market's rally continue throughout some absolutely horrible news items. Just in the last few days ...
General Motors, one of our nation's most storied companies, filed for bankruptcy. (Hot on the heels of Chrysler, another major U.S. industrial concern).
We learned that our nation's jobless rate hit 9.4% in May, the highest level in more than 25 frickin' years!
The SEC is charging yet another finance figure (Anthony Mozilla from Countrywide) with fraud.
Oil prices hit $70 a barrel, implying that despite deflationary forces at work, consumers are still going to get absolutely creamed at gas pumps.
And May retail sales fell 4.8%, more than economists expected.
Sure, stocks must climb a wall of worry ...
Yes, there are some "green shoots" out there ...
And I absolutely continue to advocate buying and holding quality dividend-paying stocks ...
But I fail to see why investors are SO upbeat right now, and I think 1,000 on the S&P 500 is going to present major psychological resistance throughout the summer.
As such, you should expect the volatility to continue from here on out. And that's why I think both income-producing assets and other more advanced strategies (such as covered call writing) are the bets ways to play this market.
General Motors, one of our nation's most storied companies, filed for bankruptcy. (Hot on the heels of Chrysler, another major U.S. industrial concern).
We learned that our nation's jobless rate hit 9.4% in May, the highest level in more than 25 frickin' years!
The SEC is charging yet another finance figure (Anthony Mozilla from Countrywide) with fraud.
Oil prices hit $70 a barrel, implying that despite deflationary forces at work, consumers are still going to get absolutely creamed at gas pumps.
And May retail sales fell 4.8%, more than economists expected.
Sure, stocks must climb a wall of worry ...
Yes, there are some "green shoots" out there ...
And I absolutely continue to advocate buying and holding quality dividend-paying stocks ...
But I fail to see why investors are SO upbeat right now, and I think 1,000 on the S&P 500 is going to present major psychological resistance throughout the summer.
As such, you should expect the volatility to continue from here on out. And that's why I think both income-producing assets and other more advanced strategies (such as covered call writing) are the bets ways to play this market.
Reviving this blog!
Hey, everyone. I decided to bring this blog back from the dead just as a way to communicate with all the dividend-hungry, yield-seeking investors who may not be visiting my other blog on Money & Markets.
If there's one gift I was born with, it's the ability to talk a lot! (Just ask my wife).
So I plan on posting tons of dividend news here in copious amounts going forward. It should be fun for all of us!
Nilus
If there's one gift I was born with, it's the ability to talk a lot! (Just ask my wife).
So I plan on posting tons of dividend news here in copious amounts going forward. It should be fun for all of us!
Nilus
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Here in Thailand ...
I'm typing this at about 7:30 PM local time. It's dark here in Bangkok, but it sure ain't quiet. Outside the window of my recently-constructed luxury apartment is a hub of construction activity. Adjacent to this building, there's a large hole in the ground with a whole slew of workers sawing, pounding nails, and shouting.
Farther off in the distance, I see more of the same. Construction cranes ... flickering solder irons, and foundations yet to be laid. All around are plenty of buildings that were just finished. I'm told were built upon skeletons abandoned during the Asian financial crisis.
It's remarkably similar to what I saw in Costa Rica, only on a much grander scale. And it certainly supports the idea that Asia continues to steam ahead. Pictures to come shortly ...
Farther off in the distance, I see more of the same. Construction cranes ... flickering solder irons, and foundations yet to be laid. All around are plenty of buildings that were just finished. I'm told were built upon skeletons abandoned during the Asian financial crisis.
It's remarkably similar to what I saw in Costa Rica, only on a much grander scale. And it certainly supports the idea that Asia continues to steam ahead. Pictures to come shortly ...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
More on Latin America Dividends ...
My latest column for Money & Markets has a lot more about my thoughts on Latin America's growth, especially as it relates to dividend-paying companies. If you haven't already read it, check it out now!
Monday, August 25, 2008
Lots of Development in Latin America
Well, I wasn't surprised to see that Costa Rica, and Tamarindo in particular, continues to develop at a rapid rate. More paved roads ... expensive condos ... well-stocked supermarkets ... it's all there for the influx of U.S. and European retirees.
Is is sustainable? I don't know. I do think Latin America is witnessing real gains in domestic consumption. More on that in the near future.
But as I noted on my other blog, it's hard to comprehend $800K condos in a third-world jungle. I'd rather buy a little bungelow in a beautiful, subprime-battered California town like Laguna Beach and take little jaunts down to Nicaragua during the flat spells. But to each his own, dude ...
Is is sustainable? I don't know. I do think Latin America is witnessing real gains in domestic consumption. More on that in the near future.
But as I noted on my other blog, it's hard to comprehend $800K condos in a third-world jungle. I'd rather buy a little bungelow in a beautiful, subprime-battered California town like Laguna Beach and take little jaunts down to Nicaragua during the flat spells. But to each his own, dude ...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
New High-Yield Recommendations; Lots of Traveling!
I've been absolutely slammed with work lately. In fact, I recently released three new special reports on my favorite high-yielding stocks.
If you're interested in getting them, check out this page for all the details.
I've also been doing a lot of interviews lately. For example, I just sung the praises of dividends to CBS MarketWatch a couple days ago.
Now, I'm busily preparing for a bunch of trips to find both waves and great, new investment opportunities.
Tomorrow I'll head off to Latin America for nine days. Then a quick business trip to NC. THEN ... I'll be immediately off to Thailand with a brief stop in Switzerland.
Yowza.
Oh, and did I mention that I'll be bringing along my wife and 15-month-old daughter? Yeah, it will be a real trip, dude!
Look for more updates from the road!
If you're interested in getting them, check out this page for all the details.
I've also been doing a lot of interviews lately. For example, I just sung the praises of dividends to CBS MarketWatch a couple days ago.
Now, I'm busily preparing for a bunch of trips to find both waves and great, new investment opportunities.
Tomorrow I'll head off to Latin America for nine days. Then a quick business trip to NC. THEN ... I'll be immediately off to Thailand with a brief stop in Switzerland.
Yowza.
Oh, and did I mention that I'll be bringing along my wife and 15-month-old daughter? Yeah, it will be a real trip, dude!
Look for more updates from the road!
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